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 Consumers
in Asia/Pacific Display Optimistic Outlook for the Second Half of 2002, HK
Remains Glum
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Singapore, August 13, 2002 -- Despite the volatile business, economic and
political developments across the globe, consumers?outlook for the next six
months in Asia/Pacific has generally improved. This is one of the key
findings in the latest MasterIndex of Consumer Confidence?survey from
MasterCard International.
A total of 5,406 consumers were surveyed from June 1-21 2002 for the latest
MasterIndex report that tracks sentiment on five variables: employment,
economy, regular income, stock market and quality of life. The responses are
consumers' thoughts on the six months ahead (i.e. July 2002 to December
2002). MasterCard International conducts its 13-market survey on consumer
confidence bi-annually.
Other key results for the latest MasterIndex survey include:
Nine markets within Asia/Pacific manifest positive sentiment for the next
six months ?Korea (76.5), New Zealand (75.2), Malaysia (74.0), Thailand
(73.9), China (73.6), Indonesia (67.7), Taiwan (58.9), Australia (58.6) and
Singapore (56.1).
Thai consumers have never been more upbeat about the future as the latest
MasterIndex is the highest ever for Thailand
Strong rebound evident in Malaysia and Korea while consumer sentiment in
Taiwan and Singapore continues to improve
This is unquestionably a period of volatility and tremendous change, not
just in this region, but across the globe. At a time like this, it is even
more critical to capture trends on consumer sentiment. The latest
MasterIndex shows that consumers in the Asia/Pacific region have a generally
positive outlook for the future. Interestingly, the positive sentiment is
evident in such diverse markets such as Thailand, Korea, New Zealand and
Malaysia,?said Mr. Stuart McDonald, senior vice president, Corporate
Services, Asia/Pacific, MasterCard International.
The markets that have shown the most significant improvement in consumer
sentiments are those most successful in boosting domestic consumption as an
engine of growth. This is consistent with the observed trend that the region
is increasingly capable of supplementing exports with domestic consumption
as the new driver of economic activities. Given the current volatile
external environment and rising uncertainty, discretionary consumption
becomes even more important to ensure macro economic stability,?said Dr.
Yuwa Hedrick-Wong, economic advisor to MasterCard in Asia/Pacific.
Suitable financial infrastructure, for example, has to be in place to ensure
that banks are capable and efficient in providing competitive products and
services to consumers. The business environment has to become more
supportive to the development of small and medium size businesses. This
latest round of MasterIndex survey can be construed as a vote of confidence
by consumers in Asia/Pacific that consumption-led growth is good for
them,?added Dr. Hedrick-Wong.
COUNTRY FINDINGS
Korea is again on the rise. The current score of 76.5 sustains the upward
trend in consumer confidence, which began in December 2000. Scores for all
five variables continue to be within the optimistic range. Even a decline in
stock market sentiment (currently 67.5 vs. previous 79.3) does not impact
the over-all average as there are major gains in the areas of employment
(76.1 vs. previous 53.0) and quality of life (78.3 vs. previous 58.1).
New Zealand is another market that displays extremely buoyant consumer
sentiment. The latest MasterIndex of 75.2 is the highest score in seven
years. Respondents believe there is much to look forward to in the areas of
regular income (89.4), the economy (77.7) and employment (75.1).
There is no doubt consumer confidence is back in Malaysia. Malaysia
MasterIndex surges from the previous reading of 44.4 to an extremely strong
score of 74.0. Every variable gains over twenty points in the latest survey.
Particularly noteworthy are scores for employment, which shoots up from 33.4
to 69.9, as well as economy, which leaps from 42.9 to the current 77.4.
A spectacular turnaround takes place in Thailand. The latest MasterIndex of
73.9 is a record high for this market. Scores for all five variables soars
to some of the highest readings in years. There are record highs for economy
(79.8) and quality of life (67.1).
China"s current index of 73.6 falls from its highest ever score of 84.8 six
months ago but consumer confidence in this market remains strong. The latest
MasterIndex reveals lower scores for all five variables, compared to six
months ago. Weaker consumer sentiment for employment (53.6) and the stock
market (57.1) results in reducing the over all average. Consumers in
Shanghai appear to be less upbeat about the future than their counterparts
in Beijing and Guangzhou.
Consumer outlook in Indonesia continues to pick up, as MasterIndex moves up
to 67.7 from the previous score of 60.4. Indonesians appear to be most
upbeat about regular income (92.0), the stock market (73.1) and the economy
(64.9).
Taiwan"s current MasterIndex of 58.9 shows a remarkable improvement in
consumer sentiment. The December 2001 score of 46.2 was bordering on mildly
pessimistic but six months later, Taiwanese consumers are on the road to
recovery. Except for quality of life at 39.7, all other four variables leaps
up from the previous indices to reach the mid-60s levels (economy at 64.6,
stock market at 63.7, regular income at 63.4 and employment at 62.9).
At 58.6, consumer confidence in Australia is fairly optimistic. The latest
MasterIndex shows a slight improvement from the previous score of 55.6.
There are significant movements in virtually every variable. Quality of life
is down at 38.9 from the previous 61.7 and regular income dips as well from
80.8 to the current 74.6. However, these declines have been offset by the
gains in employment (currently at 54.0 from previous 30.8) and the stock
market (currently 67.8 vs. previous 55.9)
Consumer confidence appears to be coming back, albeit slowly, in Singapore.
From a previously neutral score of 51.7, the latest MasterIndex of 56.1
shows that Singapore consumers are now fairly optimistic about the next six
months. Economy shows an impressive gain (72.9 vs. previous 52.7) but this
is offset by a downgrade in quality of life (39.5 vs. previous 55.8).
For the first time since June 1999, India (42.6) has turned slightly
pessimistic. Respondents appear to be most anxious about employment
prospects (29.8), the economy (39.4) and the stock market (33.8). While the
MasterIndex score for regular income remains fairly optimistic at 56.1, this
is the lowest index for this variable since 1995.
Consumer outlook in the Philippines remains weak. The latest MasterIndex of
39.7 registers a marginal increase from the previous index of 37.1. There is
improvement in indices for the economy (42.2), quality of life (38.3) and
employment (24.1). However, respondents show some anxiety in the area of
regular income (down by 3.9 points at 59.6)
Japan"s (23.5) latest MasterIndex edges up slightly. The most noticeable
change is manifested in stock market, which leaps from the previous 44.5 to
the current 58.4. Consumer sentiment for regular income (17.6), quality of
life (15.0) and employment (11.4) weakens slightly however.
The latest MasterIndex in Hong Kong (13.9) barely registers a change from
the previous reading of 12.5. There is evidence of improved consumer
sentiment on economy (21.5), employment (11.1) and quality of life (7.4),
however the significant declines in regular income (7.4 vs. previous score
of 26.5) has impacted the over all MasterIndex score.
About MasterIndex The MasterIndex survey of consumer confidence is the only
one of its kind in the region. The survey began in Quarter 2 1993 and has
been conducted bi-annually since. Thirteen markets participate in the
survey: Australia, China, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Japan, Korea,
Malaysia, New Zealand, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand. The last
survey was conducted in June 2002 among a sample of approximately 400 (total
sample of 5406) across the middle and upper income groups in each country,
except in China where approximately 600 respondents were surveyed.
The MasterIndex is calculated based upon percentage response figures, with
zero as the most pessimistic, 100 as most optimistic and 50 as neutral. Five
economic factors are measured: employment, the economy, regular income,
stock market and quality of life. The responses are consumers' thoughts on
the six months ahead (i.e. July 2002 to December 2002). Data collection was
via personal and telephone interviews with the questionnaire translated to
the local language wherever appropriate and necessary. The survey has a
margin of sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points at the 90%
confidence level. |
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